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Prediction for CME (2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-11T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25917/-1
CME Note: Bright southern partial halo CME with a wider faint shock front. Its source is a large filament eruption with deep dimming and high post-eruptive arcades occurring in southern hemisphere south of AR 3363 around 2023-07-11T19:15Z (SDO 304,193, EUVI A 195, 304) centered around S35E05.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T15:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-15T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

From SIDC Ursigram
:Issued: 2023 Jul 12 1234 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30712
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Jul 2023, 1233UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 216 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 211 / AP: 025 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 015

Coronal mass ejections: ... A filament eruption near NOAA AR 3363 (beta) was observed yesterday with an associated southward partial halo CME first visible in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 19:24 UTC on July 11th with a projected speed around 750 km/s. Detailed analysis suggests that a glancing blow from this CME can be expected to arrive to Earth on July 15th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Lead Time: 51.20 hour(s)
Difference: -20.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-07-12T12:43Z

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